MattSnodBlog

So if you're like me and have an iPhone and live in either the New York or San Francisco metro areas, then you probably hate AT&T. In fact, if I have one more call dropped for no good reason, they're going to have to invent a new word for "hate." Perhaps "hateT&T"?

All of this bile is the undercurrent of life as an iPhone user in the U.S. Like an old sports injury, you just sorta learn to live with it. The ostensible light at the end of the tunnel for iPhone/AT&T users is the prospect of a Verizon iPhone. As customers who have used both services know, Verizon at least lets you talk on your phone ... with someone else ... for the duration of a conversation ... even in a train tunnel.

However, what everyone seems to be missing here is the capacity issue. In short, what hampered the iPhone experience was, well, the iPhone. They were victims of their own success. While Apple didn't quite sell the expected 10 million iPhones in year one, they have sold at least (estimated) 45,000,000 of them to date. With a good percentage of those being in the U.S., that results in a mobile carrier that is quickly and consistently overburdened.

AT&T just simply can't handle it, and it only seems to be getting worse, as new iPhone users continue to outpace AT&T's capacity. Five bars mean nothing when there are 5,000 people all trying to connect to one node. But I've heard that Verizon wouldn't have been able to handle the onslaught of new users either, if they had been given the iPhone. And if millions of dissatisfied iPhone users all make the switch when a Verizon iPhone is released, they'll face the same situation.

I'm inclined to stay with AT&T on that day, when their capacity skyrockets from a mass exodus of customers. Am I defending AT&T? Certainly not. Even after the onslaught of FAIL messages months ago, they have yet to make discernible improvements in their service. But I think we're kidding ourselves if we think Verizon will ride in on their white horse and save the day.

There's an app for that? There's a map for that? How about, there's a word for that ... regret. If you've spent any time in front of a TV or computer over the last month, you've by now seen Verizon's anti-AT&T ads, "There's a map for that." It's actually very well done, to-the-point, and effective in highlighting AT&T's 3G coverage shortcomings.

However, an unintended result of this may be angering AT&T to the point that they bend Apple's ear (and wallet) next year into maintaining their exclusivity deal. Let's face it, Verizon has the better network (both data and voice), but what they don't have is the better device, namely the iPhone. Since they couldn't (and presumably can't) win on the device front, they decided to attack their competitor on the service front. In doing so, they may be sabotaging any plans they have to get the iPhone on their network in Q3 of 2010 when AT&T's exclusivity with Apple is up.

AT&T is already angry enough at the (very effective) ads that they're suing Verizon. (Excerpt: How dare you point out that our network sucks!) I think they might become so put off by these ads that they'll back up a couple of truckloads of cash to 1 Infinite Loop to ensure Apple retains its exclusivity with them.

Seemingly, Verizon -- who never before went all-out with attack ads -- is banking on the Droid being an iPhone killer (or denter?). But while initial reports are pretty good on the Droid, the latest ones have been pointing more towards flaws in its design. An iPhone killer it ain't. I believe the iPhone killer will be ... an iPhone. Verizon will need to be sure it doesn't just win this battle but make headway in the war.